Glasgow’s COP26 drew to a close in the late evening of Saturday 13th November, leaving many with mixed emotions. As the media and public figures rushed to declare it either a roaring success or a catastrophic failure, for many people there has been an upswell in feelings of desperation, anxiety and confusion about COP, and about what happens next.

According to one study supported by the University of York, 78% of people reported some level of fear about climate change, with 41% reporting being very much or extremely fearful. It is understandable to feel overwhelmed, angry or despairing at the climate and ecological crisis. Exposure to coverage before COP, describing the recent IPCC report as ‘code red for humanity’ and COP26 as our ‘last best hope’ of limiting warming, and subsequently the ample coverage after COP, which called it a failure, can really heighten these concerns.

In this post, we are going to explore some of the details and implications of COP26, as well as recount what happened in Glasgow.

In the immediate aftermath of the publication of the Glasgow Climate Pact (and in many cases, before it), the internet was full of analyses explaining why COP was – or was not – a success. For every article claiming victory, there was another despairing at defeat.

COPs are immensely complex, sprawling, and lively events. Calling one a failure or a success in broad terms is often more reductive than is fair, and risks losing the nuance of the proceedings and outcomes from the COP. Additionally, COPs take place every year, and the progression of multilateral climate agreements – with nearly 200 parties involved – is incremental, and incredibly slow.

It can be more helpful to consider what the COP did and didn’t achieve, and compare this to what it was possible for it to achieve:

• Has COP26 solved climate change? No (but it wasn’t realistic to expect it to).
• Did COP26 achieve more than previous COPs? Yes, in lots of areas (but there were others where it still didn’t go far enough, and lots of missed opportunities).
• Were the commitments made at COP26 significant? Yes – but these always come with the caveat of whether or not they are going to be stuck to.
• Are there reasons to be hopeful after COP26? Yes, absolutely. Not least because of the incredible power of the youth and Indigenous movements on the streets of Glasgow.
• Does COP26 mean we can relax, or decrease the pressure for climate action? No – in fact, it’s the best time to step up our efforts to push for the future we need.

Really, whether you perceive COP26 as a success or failure depends on whether you think COPs are capable of bringing about the change we need – and in fact, many commentators on either side of the pile are actually making lots of the same points.

It is reasonable to argue that COP26 produced hugely successful outcomes for a COP, and also argue that the event itself was exclusive and discriminatory, that there remains a mountain to climb before we have made real progress on climate, and that we – organisations, civil society, communities and individuals – must continue pushing for climate action and climate justice.

We were pleased to see some of the political outcomes that arose during the two weeks of COP26. For example:

1. Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use – a pledge to end and reverse deforestation by 2030, signed by over 140 countries. This is a big commitment, covering over 90% of the world’s forests, and involving billions of dollars of finance for the protection of old-growth forests. However, this is not the first time that global leaders have pledged to eliminate deforestation.
2. Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 (using a 2020 baseline) signed by over 100 countries, but China, India and Russia are not among them. Methane is a powerful short-lived climate pollutant, and it’s encouraging to see that – with all the conversation about carbon dioxide – it is not being forgotten.
   US-China Joint Glasgow Declaration on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s – this was an unexpected announcement by two big emitters who usually have quite a frosty relationship, committing them to cooperate in their efforts to limit warming to 1.5ºC.
3. Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance – an initiative spearheaded by Denmark and Costa Rica, working as an international coalition to facilitate the phase-out of oil and gas production. This is complemented by the Powering Past Coal Alliance, of over 40 countries pledging to move away from coal.
4. Glasgow Climate Pact – the final cover decision text adopted by the COP, which was weak in places, robust in others, and included the first ever explicit mention of the need to reduce fossil fuel consumption (in this case, to “phasedown” coal) from a COP agreement. The Pact also requires parties to revisit emissions reduction plans again in 2022.

Here are some of the more general themes the emerged from Glasgow:

Youth.

One of the more inspiring things that came out of Glasgow was an incredible turnout of youth. From the Conference of Youth, to the School Strike and the Global Day of Action, to speaking on panels in the Blue Zone and running fringe events around the city, there’s no doubt that the youth turned out for Glasgow. Whilst politicians and negotiators did their thing inside the heavily-insulated Blue Zone, the streets of Glasgow were full of song, from the thousands of youth who turned out to march for the future. If there is one major reason to feel inspired by COP26, it’s youth.

Exclusivity.

This was a very exclusive COP. Before COP, many delegates from the Global South were either priced out or excluded due to vaccine inequity, and even after arriving in Glasgow, a lack of inclusivity continued to pervade the event. Chatting with activists on the ground, we heard about troubles with accommodation and visas, and of profiling within the Blue Zone. There is also of course the now-infamous story of Karine Elharrar, an Israeli minister who was unable to attend on the opening Monday of COP26 because the conference was not wheelchair accessible.

The Blue Zone (where the negotiators and world leaders were) was of course heavily security-protected, and the police presence throughout the city was enormous. The Green Zone, billed as a ‘window into COP’ for the public, was a good 20 minute walk away from the main conference, and featured only one screen in a small seating area showing what was actually going on in the Blue Zone. Far from being open to all, tickets for events in the Green Zone sold out almost immediately when they went online before the COP. Since security onsite spent most of the COP adamant not to let members of the public into the building without an event ticket (even though they did in fact have right of entry into the public spaces inside), the Green Zone was not a ‘window into the COP’ for the general public.

Money.

A huge proportion of the negotiations that took place at COP centred around money – from reparations for loss and damage, to adaptation finance, to securing funds for forest conservation efforts. Many pledges on finance were insufficient, but it’s fair to say that the ‘mobilise finance’ aspect of the COP’s official goals should receive a big tick.

Shortly before COP began, there was a lot of discussion about the failure of richer countries in the Global North to deliver on the $100 billion USD annual commitment “to address the needs of developing countries”. Perhaps this was why so much of the focus was on finance, particularly regarding loss and damage and adaptation. In any case, whilst a huge amount of money was indeed mobilised, the general feeling post-COP is that it still isn’t enough – and there are still issues surrounding access to the funding for countries in the Global South.

COP27 will take place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, from 7-18th November 2022 and before then, there will be further G7 and G20 summits, as well as COPs for other UN conventions (such as on Biodiversity and Desertification), in the first half of 2022.

Parties to the Paris Agreement are “urged” to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (national-level plans for emissions reductions) before COP27. Parties who have not yet done so are also “urged” to submit (or update) their long-term strategies.

COP28 will take place in the UAE from 6-17th November 2023, and COP29 will take place from 11th-22nd November 2024, but the host country has not yet been decided.

Aside from the political, all the organisations, delegates and activists who attended COP26 will have now gone home to rest and recover after a truly chaotic and exhausting couple of weeks in Glasgow. Whilst national pledges and targets have been set, it often falls to civil society to do the work – and this post-Glasgow work will be measured in years, not days. It will be carried out not by politicians, but by everyone else.

This period in the aftermath of COP, then, ought to be one of rest and restoration, and all those pushing to heal the planet will come back around to keep on working. COP26 has not solved anything on a global scale – and far from it. But we have undoubtedly gained a lot of ground and collectively we must, after taking the time to rest and recover, get straight back to it.

This article originally appeared on https://ecologi.com/articles/blog/cop26-what-happens-now